Thursday, June 23, 2005

Drought?

Our local weatherman pointed out to us tonight that Richmond has not had rain for 13 days. It looks like the drought of recent years may be coming back. Already a nearby county is rationing water, according to the odd-even schedule. The drought was around in 2002, when at one time all watering was banned. Is climate change somehow affecting this?

Maybe. But that would not explain what happened in 2003 and 2004. In those two years, we had storm after storm after storm, the lawns stayed green all summer long, and it never really got hot. To me, whether we get rain all the time or a drought depends on random factors.

It is interesting that SUUSI goes contrary to the rest of Virginia. In 2002, we had a prolonged drought, but it poured 5 inches of rain in Giles county one night, causing massive flooding and canceling a nature trip. In 2003 and 2004, it poured rain all over the place, except at SUUSI. At SUUSI in both those years we had good weather, with rain on only one day. I remember that last year when we left SUUSI, it was a bright and sunny cheerful day. As we drove away from Virginia Tech towards Richmond, it clouded up and started to rain, and rained harder and harder as we got closer to Richmond. To me that says that SUUSI is a magic place - you escape the bad weather of the world to go for the good weather of SUUSI, both actually and metaphorically.

In any case, we may have to start watering our lawn soon. But that gets us into the Sprinkler Paradox, like a Catch 22. If you are allowed to water your lawn, your lawn does not need watering. If your lawn needs watering, they restrict or forbid you from doing it. We'll start watering, but I am aware that either rain or the Sprinker Paradox may put an end soon to watering.

As far as the current drought is concerned, a recent run of GFS shows that a storm is going to come north from Puerto Rico and give us rain next Monday, and that more storms will follow. Hope they stop before SUUSI.

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