Tropical Storm Ernesto 1
The mess east of the Antilles has become a depression, and now a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Ernesto, or maybe Ernie for short. This storm is of note now because some models predict it to head towards places on the US Gulf Coast. If so, it may cause more misery for New Orleans and if it hits enough rigs and refineries, it will cause gasoline and natural gas prices to soar.
The GFDL this morning called for a hit on the Texas-Louisiana border, like Rita last year. Then it called for a hit east of Mobile, making this another Dennis instead. The GFS insists else Kingdom Come that this storm is going to fizzle. Finally it tries to do something with it, fizzling it then bringing it back several times. It shows Ernesto hitting the Big Bend area of Florida, then crossing Florida and George to go out in the Atlantic and hug the Outer Banks. NOGAPS calls for a Mobile landing, and the Canadian model calls for it to hit Houma, LA, then ride the coast to the east, meaning everyone gets hit. MM5 calls for a Mobile hit. The official NHC forecast at 2006 August 27 2300 EDT calls for the storm to weaken from hitting Cuba (a slight northern jog) then strengthen to Category 3 and head for Pensacola. A cold front is bombing out of Canada towards the southeast, and this could force Ernesto to the east.
This storm is not very good news. If it hits New Orleans, that's it for that town. It will shrink to a small city the size of Houma, as people say, "to heck with it" and move out. The question is: is FEMA ready for this one? After the hoopla over Katrina last year, they should be. If it hits New Orleans and FEMA flubs it up again, we will have a Democratic Congress in January.
It could hit oil facilities, in the gulf itself and on the coast. The gulf mainly has oil rigs; the coastal area mainly refineries. It is already threatening the gulf, and this has caused the price of oil to rise. The worst thing it could do is hit Houston and Galveston. If it does that, oil prices will plummet and gasoline prices will soar; there could be shortages. I would predict the price of gasoline to go to $3.50/gallon. It would not be good to hit elsewhere in Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi either, as these areas are wall to wall rigs and refineries.
We will have to wait and see what happens when it gets into the Gulf. In the meantime, prepare for the storm and for much higher energy prices, should it strike the central or western Gulf Coast.
The GFDL this morning called for a hit on the Texas-Louisiana border, like Rita last year. Then it called for a hit east of Mobile, making this another Dennis instead. The GFS insists else Kingdom Come that this storm is going to fizzle. Finally it tries to do something with it, fizzling it then bringing it back several times. It shows Ernesto hitting the Big Bend area of Florida, then crossing Florida and George to go out in the Atlantic and hug the Outer Banks. NOGAPS calls for a Mobile landing, and the Canadian model calls for it to hit Houma, LA, then ride the coast to the east, meaning everyone gets hit. MM5 calls for a Mobile hit. The official NHC forecast at 2006 August 27 2300 EDT calls for the storm to weaken from hitting Cuba (a slight northern jog) then strengthen to Category 3 and head for Pensacola. A cold front is bombing out of Canada towards the southeast, and this could force Ernesto to the east.
This storm is not very good news. If it hits New Orleans, that's it for that town. It will shrink to a small city the size of Houma, as people say, "to heck with it" and move out. The question is: is FEMA ready for this one? After the hoopla over Katrina last year, they should be. If it hits New Orleans and FEMA flubs it up again, we will have a Democratic Congress in January.
It could hit oil facilities, in the gulf itself and on the coast. The gulf mainly has oil rigs; the coastal area mainly refineries. It is already threatening the gulf, and this has caused the price of oil to rise. The worst thing it could do is hit Houston and Galveston. If it does that, oil prices will plummet and gasoline prices will soar; there could be shortages. I would predict the price of gasoline to go to $3.50/gallon. It would not be good to hit elsewhere in Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi either, as these areas are wall to wall rigs and refineries.
We will have to wait and see what happens when it gets into the Gulf. In the meantime, prepare for the storm and for much higher energy prices, should it strike the central or western Gulf Coast.
posted by Jim at 9:24 PM
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