Hurricane Season
2006 June 1 has come and gone. It is now official NHC hurricane season. So what is coming up as far as hurricanes are concerned? Certainly I hope for something other than 2005. The 2005 season broke so many records that I refer you to this for them. I will just remark that in previous seasons, hurricanes will go to F or G in the alphabet or maybe K or L or something. 1995 was unusually active, and got as far as T; it did not quite make it to the end. Not only did 2005 run the NHC out of alphabetic names, it plowed into the Greek alphabet, and made its way seven letters into it, going all the way to Eta! (No, the NHC did not designate an Eta. They did say that a storm in October turned out to be a tropical storm, but they did not name it. I am naming it Eta). The season was the only one on record with a W storm, and that storm, Wilma, was the strongest hurricane on record. The 2005 season didn't just set a record. It obliterated the records like Katrina obliterated the Gulf Coast.
What caused the season? It was so much worse than any other season that global warming could not have accounted for that many storms. Neither could the theory of a cycle of hurricanes; that we are entering an era of more storms, similar to the 1950s. I believe the season resulted from a combination of both global warming and the natural cycle.
So what can we expect in 2006? They are saying it is going to be another active season, but it will "only" go to R or so. Indeed, I see that the seas are getting warm already. The water off the Mexican Pacific coast is already bath water, so tropical systems are already hatching. There have been two of them as of 2006 June 4. So it looks like an active season. I am getting a little concerned about it, too. Last year, the Bermuda High sat just off the coast, giving us hot, sticky, and rainless weather for weeks. This forced all the hurricanes into the Gulf, where they caused massive havoc. Only one storm hit the Atlantic seaboard - Category 1 Ophelia.
This year the high so far has been distant. This has allowed all kinds of rain storms to afflict us. Today, for example, it would be nice and clear, with a few puffy and somewhat overgrown cumulus clouds around. Then a dark cloud would dangle lightning and hit us, causing a torrent. I am getting afraid that this will result in storms hitting the Atlantic coast. The Low so far has been to the Northeast, north of us in Richmond. So a hurricane will either scoot to to the south of this low, which would cause it to cross Florida and hit the Gulf States, or it will move to the east of the low, meaning it will go fish out in the Atlantic or brush by the Outer Banks. And it is one of these that I am afraid could become another Floyd or Isabel. I did some experimenting with a model on the Internet and found that with the pattern of lows to our north and a far off southern Bermuda highs, that storms will either brush by the coast or head out to sea.
So I am afraid of storms hitting our region. Maybe it doesn't make a difference, for if they hit the Gulf instead, it will damage the US's oil drilling and refining capacity, and cause gasoline prices to skyrocket. I still say, if these hurricanes insist on coming our way, I will post a NO circle sign saying "No 'Canes".
What caused the season? It was so much worse than any other season that global warming could not have accounted for that many storms. Neither could the theory of a cycle of hurricanes; that we are entering an era of more storms, similar to the 1950s. I believe the season resulted from a combination of both global warming and the natural cycle.
So what can we expect in 2006? They are saying it is going to be another active season, but it will "only" go to R or so. Indeed, I see that the seas are getting warm already. The water off the Mexican Pacific coast is already bath water, so tropical systems are already hatching. There have been two of them as of 2006 June 4. So it looks like an active season. I am getting a little concerned about it, too. Last year, the Bermuda High sat just off the coast, giving us hot, sticky, and rainless weather for weeks. This forced all the hurricanes into the Gulf, where they caused massive havoc. Only one storm hit the Atlantic seaboard - Category 1 Ophelia.
This year the high so far has been distant. This has allowed all kinds of rain storms to afflict us. Today, for example, it would be nice and clear, with a few puffy and somewhat overgrown cumulus clouds around. Then a dark cloud would dangle lightning and hit us, causing a torrent. I am getting afraid that this will result in storms hitting the Atlantic coast. The Low so far has been to the Northeast, north of us in Richmond. So a hurricane will either scoot to to the south of this low, which would cause it to cross Florida and hit the Gulf States, or it will move to the east of the low, meaning it will go fish out in the Atlantic or brush by the Outer Banks. And it is one of these that I am afraid could become another Floyd or Isabel. I did some experimenting with a model on the Internet and found that with the pattern of lows to our north and a far off southern Bermuda highs, that storms will either brush by the coast or head out to sea.
So I am afraid of storms hitting our region. Maybe it doesn't make a difference, for if they hit the Gulf instead, it will damage the US's oil drilling and refining capacity, and cause gasoline prices to skyrocket. I still say, if these hurricanes insist on coming our way, I will post a NO circle sign saying "No 'Canes".
posted by Jim at 8:28 PM
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