Tropical storm Ernesto 2
This storm has turned away from the Gulf of Mexico. It is now headed our way, in Central Virginia. The latest guidance says, however, that it will not become a hurricane again. Its maximum strength will be a Class 4 Tropical storm, or storm storm (maximum speed between 64 and 73 mph), just shy of a hurricane, when it makes landfall in South Carolina. It then would go up into western Central Virginia near Lynchburg and continue on to the Great Lakes.
This is what the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) model has been saying all along. This model is dependent not only upon the time in the future and the place, but the storm as well. Each storm has its own model run. The Ernesto GFDL runs first showed it going to eastern Texas. Then it shifted eastward to a Mobile strike, and then to crossing the Florida peninsula and coming up the Atlantic coast. But while the other models show it staying off the coast, GFDL consistently predicted it to go inland and disappear. That is what the current track says it will do.
What happens in Central Virginia if it takes this track? Comparing it with Isabel, I note that Ernesto is coming in a better angle. Isabel came off the ocean, struck just to the west of Ocracoke Island, then continued northwest by north into Central Virginia and on to the Ohio-Pennsylvania border at Lake Erie. It sturck as a Category 2 hurricane, and was down to storm storm strength when it struck Central Virginia, causing powerful winds. In 2003 Central Virginia had been getting rain, rain, rain all summer long, and Tropical storm Henri just the previous weekend dumped a pile of rain on top fo that. So when Isabel struck with high tropical storm force winds, it toppled trees all over the place and caused massive power outages.
By comparison, Ernesto is coming in from the west after striking well to the south. It will strike as a storm storm in South Carolina and will be down to a strong gale storm (Class 2) when it gets here, with 45 mph winds. Here it will be about 40-45 mph, or less than the 50 mph or so winds that came with Floyd and Fran and certainly less than the 72 mph winds that came with Isabel. The morning paper said that we could have 4-8 inches of rain, flooding some places, especially Shockoe Bottom, so this storm could have severe political impact. I would think this could happen, and in addition, we could have tornadoes, as we will be in the northeast quadrant of the storm.
So this does not look like that powerful a storm for us. It will ruin the weekend weather. However, there is another one coming, and I think this one will be named Florence, because I see nothing else out there. The latest run of Florence has it going out to sea, but this one needs to be watched, and I hope it does not come here - the trees will be weakened by the heavy rains of Ernesto.
This is what the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) model has been saying all along. This model is dependent not only upon the time in the future and the place, but the storm as well. Each storm has its own model run. The Ernesto GFDL runs first showed it going to eastern Texas. Then it shifted eastward to a Mobile strike, and then to crossing the Florida peninsula and coming up the Atlantic coast. But while the other models show it staying off the coast, GFDL consistently predicted it to go inland and disappear. That is what the current track says it will do.
What happens in Central Virginia if it takes this track? Comparing it with Isabel, I note that Ernesto is coming in a better angle. Isabel came off the ocean, struck just to the west of Ocracoke Island, then continued northwest by north into Central Virginia and on to the Ohio-Pennsylvania border at Lake Erie. It sturck as a Category 2 hurricane, and was down to storm storm strength when it struck Central Virginia, causing powerful winds. In 2003 Central Virginia had been getting rain, rain, rain all summer long, and Tropical storm Henri just the previous weekend dumped a pile of rain on top fo that. So when Isabel struck with high tropical storm force winds, it toppled trees all over the place and caused massive power outages.
By comparison, Ernesto is coming in from the west after striking well to the south. It will strike as a storm storm in South Carolina and will be down to a strong gale storm (Class 2) when it gets here, with 45 mph winds. Here it will be about 40-45 mph, or less than the 50 mph or so winds that came with Floyd and Fran and certainly less than the 72 mph winds that came with Isabel. The morning paper said that we could have 4-8 inches of rain, flooding some places, especially Shockoe Bottom, so this storm could have severe political impact. I would think this could happen, and in addition, we could have tornadoes, as we will be in the northeast quadrant of the storm.
So this does not look like that powerful a storm for us. It will ruin the weekend weather. However, there is another one coming, and I think this one will be named Florence, because I see nothing else out there. The latest run of Florence has it going out to sea, but this one needs to be watched, and I hope it does not come here - the trees will be weakened by the heavy rains of Ernesto.
posted by Jim at 8:18 AM
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