Hurricane Wow
"12Z GFS Wow!!". That is what one topic title was yesterday on Storm2k. That run showed a sizable hurricane north of Hispaniola on August 13 at 8 am EDT. This storm has been off and on a lot on the GFS and has also varied in date from about the 11th to about the 17th. Because of this reference, I now refer to it as Hurricane Wow. There is also another storm about the 3rd of August, next Friday, caused by the tail of a cold front too far south for this time of the year; I call this one Frontdragger.
So what is the status now? Today, 2007 July 29:
00Z - Frontdragger forms in Gulf of Mexico and wanders around there for a couple of days August 2-3. Wow just barely tries to form off the Carolina coast on August 13.
06Z - Frontdragger forms in Gulf of Mexico near Cedar Key August 7 at 8 pm. No trace of Wow.
12Z - Frontdragger indistinguishable from leftovers of front. Small storm skirts by Cuba August 5. Wow reappears as a big storm just barely brushing by the Outerbanks on August 13.
18Z - No trace of Frontdragger. August 9 storm hits Florida. Wow strikes southern Florida and goes into Gulf August 14 at 8am.
So it's been hither and thither, here and about, see and saw with these storms. So it is hard to predict what will happen. A storm could strike the Carolinas about August 13, or it may not. Same with the August 3 and 9 storms. The GFS is showing a shift in pattern from two weeks ago. Then the tongue of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of storms spitting off the west coast of Africa was not doing much; now it is spitting off storms and hurricanes all over the place. This means we may have some tropical action about mid August.
So what is the status now? Today, 2007 July 29:
00Z - Frontdragger forms in Gulf of Mexico and wanders around there for a couple of days August 2-3. Wow just barely tries to form off the Carolina coast on August 13.
06Z - Frontdragger forms in Gulf of Mexico near Cedar Key August 7 at 8 pm. No trace of Wow.
12Z - Frontdragger indistinguishable from leftovers of front. Small storm skirts by Cuba August 5. Wow reappears as a big storm just barely brushing by the Outerbanks on August 13.
18Z - No trace of Frontdragger. August 9 storm hits Florida. Wow strikes southern Florida and goes into Gulf August 14 at 8am.
So it's been hither and thither, here and about, see and saw with these storms. So it is hard to predict what will happen. A storm could strike the Carolinas about August 13, or it may not. Same with the August 3 and 9 storms. The GFS is showing a shift in pattern from two weeks ago. Then the tongue of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of storms spitting off the west coast of Africa was not doing much; now it is spitting off storms and hurricanes all over the place. This means we may have some tropical action about mid August.
posted by Jim at 6:12 PM
1 Comments:
I wish I had a faster internet connection, because that storm2k site is so graphic-intensive. By the way, hello! I'm Ron, a long-time UU, and retired National Weather Service employee, now living in the Charleston SC area. (I see from your interests that we also share interests in other nature-stuff, and--heaven help me--in sudoku.) Back to wx...while in the Air Force I worked in the Typhoon Warning Center, and have strong interest in tropical weather. I used to hope for hurricanes to come my way, but now am more concerned with things like property damage, flooding, etc., so some of the thrill is gone. Anyway, hello again! I'll be following your blog.
Ron
(administrator, UU message board at... http://FaithoftheFree.informe.com)
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