Tropical Storm Ernesto 3
Now this storm has taken a sudden twist. It had gone up the Florida peninsula as predicted, as a tropical depression. Last night (2006 August 30) it went out into the sea, but the forecasters were not predicting any great wind out of it. What they were predicting was a lot of rain. Channel 8's meteorologists (WRIC), the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) were all predicting about 9 inches of rain for Richmond. That's a lot of rain. The downtown areas of Richmond got 10-14 inches with Gaston, flooding Shockoe Bottom and Falling Creek. The biggest amount of rain I have seen with a hurricane was 4.5 inches with Floyd in 1999.
This morning, I heard the storm strengthened from 40 to 50 mph. I found out why. It is going east of the earlier projected track. Instead of making landfall near Charleston or Myrtle Beach, it will now hit North Carolina instead, somewhere near Cape Fear. At 11 am on 2006 August 31, the wind speed was quoted as 60 mph by the National Hurricane Center, making it a Class 3 tropical storm. Will it make hurricane strength by landfall? And what is its affect on us, now? I notice that wind has crept into Richmond's forecast.
I compared Bertha in 1996, which struck just as SUUSI was beginning, with Floyd in 1999, which caused huge hog waste floods in eastern North Carolina. I copied their tracks from Weather Underground and added the two images together, using Paint Shop Pro. They had almost the same identical track. Even the intensities were comparable. If anything, Bertha came a little closer to here. However, the affects of the storms were markedly different in Richmond. Bertha only caused 25 mph winds, and I did not notice anything much when I looked at the storm that night. Floyd caused howling winds and blew down a few trees, causing many power outages. Why the difference? And which one is Earnesto like?
How about Charley in 2004? It came up the same way but farther west. It seemed to follow the same path as Ernesto now is. Charley did not affect us much, only the Tidewater area.
I think the difference between Bertha and Floyd may be that Floyd was much larger. It was a huge storm. So how large is Ernesto? To me it looks medium-sized. So I think this storm will not be as severe as Floyd, but maybe produce a lot more rain than Bertha did.
And yes, Typhoon Ioke. This is still on track to clobber Japan. Right now it is washing over Wake Island and making it part of the sea. Every run of GFS since Ioke became a typhoon has said that Ioke would strike Japan. The Japanese need to prepare for this one.
1700 EDT. I got some new data in. This storm's center is going practically over my house. So much of the wind and rain will be to the east of here, in Williamsburg and the Tidewater area. Also I note that unlike Bertha, Floyd, and Charley, this one is supposed to turn left and head towards us once it hits Cape Fear. I don't know why it's going to do that. But that would definitely increase its severity here.
Now this storm has taken a sudden twist. It had gone up the Florida peninsula as predicted, as a tropical depression. Last night (2006 August 30) it went out into the sea, but the forecasters were not predicting any great wind out of it. What they were predicting was a lot of rain. Channel 8's meteorologists (WRIC), the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) were all predicting about 9 inches of rain for Richmond. That's a lot of rain. The downtown areas of Richmond got 10-14 inches with Gaston, flooding Shockoe Bottom and Falling Creek. The biggest amount of rain I have seen with a hurricane was 4.5 inches with Floyd in 1999.
This morning, I heard the storm strengthened from 40 to 50 mph. I found out why. It is going east of the earlier projected track. Instead of making landfall near Charleston or Myrtle Beach, it will now hit North Carolina instead, somewhere near Cape Fear. At 11 am on 2006 August 31, the wind speed was quoted as 60 mph by the National Hurricane Center, making it a Class 3 tropical storm. Will it make hurricane strength by landfall? And what is its affect on us, now? I notice that wind has crept into Richmond's forecast.
I compared Bertha in 1996, which struck just as SUUSI was beginning, with Floyd in 1999, which caused huge hog waste floods in eastern North Carolina. I copied their tracks from Weather Underground and added the two images together, using Paint Shop Pro. They had almost the same identical track. Even the intensities were comparable. If anything, Bertha came a little closer to here. However, the affects of the storms were markedly different in Richmond. Bertha only caused 25 mph winds, and I did not notice anything much when I looked at the storm that night. Floyd caused howling winds and blew down a few trees, causing many power outages. Why the difference? And which one is Earnesto like?
How about Charley in 2004? It came up the same way but farther west. It seemed to follow the same path as Ernesto now is. Charley did not affect us much, only the Tidewater area.
I think the difference between Bertha and Floyd may be that Floyd was much larger. It was a huge storm. So how large is Ernesto? To me it looks medium-sized. So I think this storm will not be as severe as Floyd, but maybe produce a lot more rain than Bertha did.
And yes, Typhoon Ioke. This is still on track to clobber Japan. Right now it is washing over Wake Island and making it part of the sea. Every run of GFS since Ioke became a typhoon has said that Ioke would strike Japan. The Japanese need to prepare for this one.
1700 EDT. I got some new data in. This storm's center is going practically over my house. So much of the wind and rain will be to the east of here, in Williamsburg and the Tidewater area. Also I note that unlike Bertha, Floyd, and Charley, this one is supposed to turn left and head towards us once it hits Cape Fear. I don't know why it's going to do that. But that would definitely increase its severity here.
posted by Jim at 2:36 PM
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