Hot Times and Still a Possible Hurricane
It certainly has been hot here recently. Last August, the temperature hit 102 degrees F, tying for the warmest since I moved to Richmond in 1978. This year, on 2007 August 8, the temperature here hit 104 degrees F (40 degrees C), making it the warmest I have ever seen here. The next night it went down only to 80 degrees. Up to now, the temperature has gone into the single digits or teens, or maybe 30s or 50s or at least the 70s. Last night was the first night that it did not even get down into the 70s. Is this global warming? Maybe, but one can't attach "global warming" to any one particular weather phenomenon.
What I do see later on is another hurricane. Not Wow or Frontdragger. Those storms never materialized. We now have two new ones in the far distance:
GFS
2007 August 8
18Z Hurricane hits Carolinas and Virginia 23rd.
2007 August 9
00Z Hurricane brushes by Carolinas 23rd, then another one brushes by the Carolinas on the 25th.
06Z Hurricane hits Florida's midsection 22nd; sidekick vanishes.
12Z Hurricane goes fish in Atlantic 200 miles offshore; sidekick vanishes
18Z Hurricane hits New York City and Long Island 25th; sidekick hits Carolinas 27th, off model range.
It varies from run to run. An earlier run had the first hurricane going so far south that it hit the Yucatan and Central America. There is a lot of variation because it is so far out. My rule for deciding whether there is anything to these GFS hurricanes two weeks in the future is that if the storm currently exists (like Isabel on 2003 September 10) , then there is something to it. If the storm currently does not exist, it may never materialize.
Currently this storm does not exist. It is supposed to form when a storm comes off the Africa coast on August 10. If and when it does, then we may have to consider this storm to be a real possibility, but it is still a crapshoot where it's going to hit, or if it is going to stay at sea ("go fish"). However, some people at Storm2k have been saying that SAL (Saharan air layer; i.e., sand coming off the Africa coast) is too strong for a storm to develop. After it leaves Africa, it goes poof.
But I will continue to watch these two storms, especially since one is predicted to strike on my anniversary.
What I do see later on is another hurricane. Not Wow or Frontdragger. Those storms never materialized. We now have two new ones in the far distance:
GFS
2007 August 8
18Z Hurricane hits Carolinas and Virginia 23rd.
2007 August 9
00Z Hurricane brushes by Carolinas 23rd, then another one brushes by the Carolinas on the 25th.
06Z Hurricane hits Florida's midsection 22nd; sidekick vanishes.
12Z Hurricane goes fish in Atlantic 200 miles offshore; sidekick vanishes
18Z Hurricane hits New York City and Long Island 25th; sidekick hits Carolinas 27th, off model range.
It varies from run to run. An earlier run had the first hurricane going so far south that it hit the Yucatan and Central America. There is a lot of variation because it is so far out. My rule for deciding whether there is anything to these GFS hurricanes two weeks in the future is that if the storm currently exists (like Isabel on 2003 September 10) , then there is something to it. If the storm currently does not exist, it may never materialize.
Currently this storm does not exist. It is supposed to form when a storm comes off the Africa coast on August 10. If and when it does, then we may have to consider this storm to be a real possibility, but it is still a crapshoot where it's going to hit, or if it is going to stay at sea ("go fish"). However, some people at Storm2k have been saying that SAL (Saharan air layer; i.e., sand coming off the Africa coast) is too strong for a storm to develop. After it leaves Africa, it goes poof.
But I will continue to watch these two storms, especially since one is predicted to strike on my anniversary.
posted by Jim at 5:48 PM
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