Invest 90L is for Real

Well, the moment of truth has arrived. The storm coming off the African coast passed it. A weather discussion said that we could have Hurricane Dean in a week. Jeff Masters' Weather Underground blog says it could become a threat by midweek. And this afternoon, NOAA gave it the name Invest 90L, meaning that it is something worth investigating.

Here are todays' GFS run results:

0Z - Looks like it's going to just miss the Outer Banks, then it turns westwards and heads towards central Virginia.
6Z - Hits Florida peninsula in the middle, continues in Gulf and hits Alabama and Florida panhandle.
12Z - Hits Miami, then goes right up the Florida peninsula into southern Georgia and Alabama. Another hurricane behind it seems to be headed for the Carolinas.
18Z - If this really happens, gasoline will be $12 a gallon and massive shortages may develop. A direct hit on the refineries and oil rigs near Houston.

These runs are consistent in that they hit somewhere along the US coastline. A fish (going out to sea) seems to be ruled out by the powerful high pressure ridge that is sending a tongue to the southeastern US coast. The other models are corroborating. The Canadian model has it, and in addition forecasts a sudden appearance of a tropical storm near Florida in the Gulf of Mexico soon. So do ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET. MM5 does not show it, but shows instead a storm soon in the Gulf of Mexico.

Looks like we are going to have a storm here, probably Hurricane Dean. The storm will strike on or about August 22. NASA needs to keep watch of this system. That date is when Endeavour will come home if the mission is extended. Other interests on the Atlantic and Gulf coast should also monitor this situation.