Moment of Truth
The moment of truth is nearing for this storm. There is a lot of information pouring in right now that suggests that some sort of storm, probably a hurricane, will approach North America somewhere around 2007 August 23. Here are the latest GFS runs, all from 2007 August 10:
0Z - Misses Atlantic coast by about 500 miles and goes out to sea.
6Z - Misses Atlantic coast by about 200 miles and goes out to sea
12Z - Goes just south of the tip of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico, and hits the Mississippi coast; similar to Katrina.
18Z - Hits Miami; then goes on to hit the Texas/Lousiana border, starting out like Georges but winding up more like Rita.
So now a wide variety of places have been hit by these far off GFS "projecticanes": New York City, central Virginia, the Carolinas, southern Florida, southern Mexico, Mississippi, New Orleans, and Beaumont, Texas area. The time is still about 348 hours away - or about two weeks. At this far date, one can't predict where it will hit, but it seems likely that somewhere on the North American coast will be hit by this storm. This is especially true because other models are developing the storm now, including the Canadian Meteorological Centre model, NOGAPS, UK Meteorologists' model, and the European Model. These models don't go out as far in time as the GFS, but they indicate some sort of storm will develop.
When should we see this storm on an actual weather map? About now is what the models say. There is a storm in western Africa, in Senegal and Gambia, about ready to leave the African coast. Some people are saying that when the storm leaves Africa, winds blowing sand from the Sahara Desert will kill the storm, so it may not even develop. But if it does develop, a high pressure ridge to the north of the storm (often called the Bermuda high) will guide the storm to wherever it is going to go, probably somewhere on the North American continent.
The moment of truth is nearing for this storm. Will it form off Africa, as the models say it will? Or will it fizzle out? The next few days will tell the answer. Interests on the Eastern and Gulf coasts should keep an eye on this developing situation. Since it does not really exist as a tropical storm or even as a storm on the ocean, the local meteorologists and NOAA are currently not saying anything about it.
0Z - Misses Atlantic coast by about 500 miles and goes out to sea.
6Z - Misses Atlantic coast by about 200 miles and goes out to sea
12Z - Goes just south of the tip of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico, and hits the Mississippi coast; similar to Katrina.
18Z - Hits Miami; then goes on to hit the Texas/Lousiana border, starting out like Georges but winding up more like Rita.
So now a wide variety of places have been hit by these far off GFS "projecticanes": New York City, central Virginia, the Carolinas, southern Florida, southern Mexico, Mississippi, New Orleans, and Beaumont, Texas area. The time is still about 348 hours away - or about two weeks. At this far date, one can't predict where it will hit, but it seems likely that somewhere on the North American coast will be hit by this storm. This is especially true because other models are developing the storm now, including the Canadian Meteorological Centre model, NOGAPS, UK Meteorologists' model, and the European Model. These models don't go out as far in time as the GFS, but they indicate some sort of storm will develop.
When should we see this storm on an actual weather map? About now is what the models say. There is a storm in western Africa, in Senegal and Gambia, about ready to leave the African coast. Some people are saying that when the storm leaves Africa, winds blowing sand from the Sahara Desert will kill the storm, so it may not even develop. But if it does develop, a high pressure ridge to the north of the storm (often called the Bermuda high) will guide the storm to wherever it is going to go, probably somewhere on the North American continent.
The moment of truth is nearing for this storm. Will it form off Africa, as the models say it will? Or will it fizzle out? The next few days will tell the answer. Interests on the Eastern and Gulf coasts should keep an eye on this developing situation. Since it does not really exist as a tropical storm or even as a storm on the ocean, the local meteorologists and NOAA are currently not saying anything about it.
posted by Jim at 6:23 PM
1 Comments:
Here's another moment of truth for you.
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