Hurricane in Kansas?
It's been some time since I made a tropical report. That is because nothing much has been happening. There is some formulation going on off the Florida and Georgia coasts. This has just recently been named Invest 93L. So what is Invest 93L going to do?
GFS - splits in half like the Wonder Twins when they activate, with one half going up the Atlantic seaboard and the other barreling into New Orleans.
GFDL - not much of anything. But then when it gets in the Gulf, it blows up into a Category 1 hurricane and hits New Orleans. Just what they need. Then it goes up into the Midwest, still maintaining tropical storm strength, right into Kansas and Missouri.
NOGAPS - Has been hurricane-conservative all season long. This one makes a tropical storm in the Gulf and takes it to the oil producing regions of Texas, south of Houston.
UKMET - Into New Orleans as a Class 4 storm or Category 1 hurricane.
HWRF - A small X in the corner.
CMC - into northwestern Florida as a tropical storm.
Now you see what I mean by a hurricane in Kansas. That's a bit overblown. The model still shows it as a tropical storm in Kansas. The main hazard I think is to New Orleans, where three of the models are sending this storm to. Remember that the Gulf waters are warm at this time of the year. Any little two-bit storm that gets into the Gulf now could blow up suddenly into a Category 5 hurricane. Look at Humberto. It had an extra few hundred miles of water to go through than they figured, and that was almost enough to make it into a Category 2 hurricane.
Now for the Sea Ice report. I got a reply to an email I sent to Jeff Masters. He says the ice has reached a minimum and will now start to expand. This is what I would think. But in the past week it has actually been shrinking. There is a lot of warm (if you call 40 F warm) water in the Arctic ocean, and that could inhibit the ice from forming as fast. So when will it start to expand? In October, we should see snow expand all over the place in Canada and Siberia. At around this time, the ice sheet should start advancing in a noticeable way. But when in October will this be?
GFS - splits in half like the Wonder Twins when they activate, with one half going up the Atlantic seaboard and the other barreling into New Orleans.
GFDL - not much of anything. But then when it gets in the Gulf, it blows up into a Category 1 hurricane and hits New Orleans. Just what they need. Then it goes up into the Midwest, still maintaining tropical storm strength, right into Kansas and Missouri.
NOGAPS - Has been hurricane-conservative all season long. This one makes a tropical storm in the Gulf and takes it to the oil producing regions of Texas, south of Houston.
UKMET - Into New Orleans as a Class 4 storm or Category 1 hurricane.
HWRF - A small X in the corner.
CMC - into northwestern Florida as a tropical storm.
Now you see what I mean by a hurricane in Kansas. That's a bit overblown. The model still shows it as a tropical storm in Kansas. The main hazard I think is to New Orleans, where three of the models are sending this storm to. Remember that the Gulf waters are warm at this time of the year. Any little two-bit storm that gets into the Gulf now could blow up suddenly into a Category 5 hurricane. Look at Humberto. It had an extra few hundred miles of water to go through than they figured, and that was almost enough to make it into a Category 2 hurricane.
Now for the Sea Ice report. I got a reply to an email I sent to Jeff Masters. He says the ice has reached a minimum and will now start to expand. This is what I would think. But in the past week it has actually been shrinking. There is a lot of warm (if you call 40 F warm) water in the Arctic ocean, and that could inhibit the ice from forming as fast. So when will it start to expand? In October, we should see snow expand all over the place in Canada and Siberia. At around this time, the ice sheet should start advancing in a noticeable way. But when in October will this be?
posted by Jim at 9:58 AM
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