Invest 99L

Felix has crashed into Nicaragua and Honduras - the first time that two Category 5 storms have struck land as Category 5 storms in the same season. It is traveling well to the south, and will probably dissipate in the high mountains of Central America after dumping 20-30 inches of rain in those areas.

I had also been following a disturbance in Africa that GFS says will launch from Africa and cross the Atlantic. But there is another upstart now. A bunch of clouds formed off the South Carolina coast. They have moved away from shore and show up as a cloud mass well out to sea in satellite photographs. The cloud mass looks like the hairdo of a Weather Channel broadcaster who was giving a report on the storm on or about 2007 September 4 1315 EDT.

The weather models predict the storm will head back to the US, as a tropical storm or hurricane. Some storms have done this. Tropical Storm Dean 1983 went out into the Atlantic, then turned around and headed towards Washington, DC. Hurricane Betsy (1965) went out into the Atlantic, started to approach the Carolinas, then did a loopdy loop and hit southern Florida and then New Orleans. Hurricane Ophelia in 2005 wandered about like a drunk on the ocean off the northern Florida coast, then staggered up the southeastern coast, grazing the Outer Banks.

Here is what the models say about Invest 99L:

GFS: the latest model run shows it going out to sea, and then splitting, with one half headed back to the Virginia coast, then turning around and heading towards New England
NOGAPS: Turns around and heads towards Florida, skirting by the northern Florida coast and striking the Carolinas.
HWRF: Hits New England after skirting Outer Banks
CMC: Hits Outer Banks then Central Virginia

One model (I can't find it now) has it turning around to Florida, crossing it near Daytona Beach, then going into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting the Mississippi area, and shortly after that, what's left of Felix then hits the same area.

This one is all over the place. Further, the official weather forecast for Richmond makes absolutely no mention of it: "Partly cloudy, high in upper 80s". One local TV met ignores 99L completely, and the other two mention it, saying we have to watch it, and making some allowance for it by calling for rain late this weekend. Jeff Masters lists several of the models and says where they take the storm.

Oh, yes. The storm from Africa. As of 18Z, it seems to be less of a threat. The last three runs of GFS show it going out to sea long before it reaches the states. The run before that one does have it heading to the Carolinas, but now Invest 99L has taken all the attention. That's the storm to watch. It may turn into a storm, perhaps a hurricane, this weekend, and some models show it going to Florida or to New York or New England. Keep tuned.

And don't forget Henriette. It made landfall today also, at Cabo San Lucas, as a minimal hurricane. It is the first time ever that two hurricane landfalls have been observed in the same day. Henriette will come up Mexico and then Arizona and New Mexico, where it will pour huge amounts of rain on unaccustomed deserts. Then it may go to the east and affect east coast weather, and maybe even influence the motion of Gabrielle and Humberto, as I imagine these two storms I discuss today are going to be called.