Big Change
One of the things I don't like about computers, especially Microsoft products, is that they go from one side or extreme to the other. I call this "whomping". Excel is the biggest whomper. When you try to select a few hundred rows, it insists on going on and on and gives you a hundred or two rows more than you want. That's whomping.
Well, computer programs are not the only things that whomp. Invest 90L really whomped today. It became Tropical Depression 4, but it whomped from hitting Mexico and southern Texas to hitting Nova Scotia instead. Here are the GFS runs for today:
0Z - Well to the south, striking Mexico and southern Texas.
6Z - Hits Houston, causing high gasoline prices and shortages.
12Z - Goes by the Outer Banks, then hooks to the left like a bowling ball and hits the Tidewater area head on, then curves to the right and scores a strike by knocking down Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York City, and southern New England including Boston. Hope this doesn't happen.
18Z - Completely misses the US, skirting by the Outer Banks by 200 miles. It then hits Nova Scotia
As you can see, TD4 whomped all the way from Mexico to Nova Scotia. What it's going to do now is anyone's guess.
I have come up with a scale that allows one to graph these results without using complicated map algorithms. I assign tropical system strikes with a scale from 0-9 as follows:
0 - Mexico and southern Texas (TMEX)
1 - Houston area (HOGA)
2 - Louisiana/Texas border (LATX)
3 - New Orleans and Mississippi (NOLA)
4 - Pensacola and Mobile (PEMO)
5 - Up the Florida peninsula (FLOP)
6 - Outer Banks (OUBA)
7 - New England (NYNE)
8 - Canadian Maritimes (MARI)
9 - Out to sea without hitting the North American continent (FISH)
This storm then went from 0 to 1 to 6 to 8 today. The past few days can be indexed thus:
08:---1
09:7497
10: 9932
11: 6451
12: 0000
13: 0168
This shows some wide swings. Other models' results can be indexed by this code, if they go far enough to show the result can be identified by the code.
Of course I don't like its wanting to go to the Outer Banks and Virginia. Some of the other models have hinted at this. The Canadian model wants to recurve this storm to the north at the Leeward Islands. The European model (ECMWF) wants to hit Florida. So we will have to wait and see what happens.
In the meantime we have some other threats. Invest 91L is between the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean; it may become Dean if it develops quickly enough. Hurricane Flossie is stronger and closer to the Hawaiian Islands than they had figured on before; the governor of that state has declared a state of emergency. And various storms threaten to come the US after TD4. To be continued tomorrow…
Well, computer programs are not the only things that whomp. Invest 90L really whomped today. It became Tropical Depression 4, but it whomped from hitting Mexico and southern Texas to hitting Nova Scotia instead. Here are the GFS runs for today:
0Z - Well to the south, striking Mexico and southern Texas.
6Z - Hits Houston, causing high gasoline prices and shortages.
12Z - Goes by the Outer Banks, then hooks to the left like a bowling ball and hits the Tidewater area head on, then curves to the right and scores a strike by knocking down Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York City, and southern New England including Boston. Hope this doesn't happen.
18Z - Completely misses the US, skirting by the Outer Banks by 200 miles. It then hits Nova Scotia
As you can see, TD4 whomped all the way from Mexico to Nova Scotia. What it's going to do now is anyone's guess.
I have come up with a scale that allows one to graph these results without using complicated map algorithms. I assign tropical system strikes with a scale from 0-9 as follows:
0 - Mexico and southern Texas (TMEX)
1 - Houston area (HOGA)
2 - Louisiana/Texas border (LATX)
3 - New Orleans and Mississippi (NOLA)
4 - Pensacola and Mobile (PEMO)
5 - Up the Florida peninsula (FLOP)
6 - Outer Banks (OUBA)
7 - New England (NYNE)
8 - Canadian Maritimes (MARI)
9 - Out to sea without hitting the North American continent (FISH)
This storm then went from 0 to 1 to 6 to 8 today. The past few days can be indexed thus:
08:---1
09:7497
10: 9932
11: 6451
12: 0000
13: 0168
This shows some wide swings. Other models' results can be indexed by this code, if they go far enough to show the result can be identified by the code.
Of course I don't like its wanting to go to the Outer Banks and Virginia. Some of the other models have hinted at this. The Canadian model wants to recurve this storm to the north at the Leeward Islands. The European model (ECMWF) wants to hit Florida. So we will have to wait and see what happens.
In the meantime we have some other threats. Invest 91L is between the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean; it may become Dean if it develops quickly enough. Hurricane Flossie is stronger and closer to the Hawaiian Islands than they had figured on before; the governor of that state has declared a state of emergency. And various storms threaten to come the US after TD4. To be continued tomorrow…
posted by Jim at 9:00 PM
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