Marine Summer Solstice
It has arrived. 2007 September 10 is the Marine Summer Solstice, the date when the warmth in the oceans and other bodies of waters reaches its peak. After today, temperature should decline in the oceans as we begin heading for 2008 March 10, the Marine Winter Solstice.
So how is the Marine Summer Solstice marked? First of all, it is the time when Arctic sea ice is at a minimum. From this time on, we can expect ice in the north to increase. The Weather Solstice already has occurred (July 26 or thereabouts) and so there has been cooling on the continents, and already snow is falling in eastern Russia and the Canadian high arctic islands. So what happened to the ice on September 11? It shrunk! That's right, it melted substantially and now nearly half of the Arctic Ocean is free of ice. This has to have an effect on the coming winter. One would think the winter should be abnormally warm, especially in eastern Russia and western Alaska. Further, with more moisture in the air, one would think that these areas would have more snow than usual, and it seems that this snow is already starting. The worst effect of this warmth is if it starts the Greenland ice sheet to melting. But that area is near the part of the Arctic Ocean that has not melted.
September 10 is also the peak of the hurricane season. So far we have had a season midway between the two previous seasons. There have been two Category 5 hurricanes, Dean and Felix. I followed Dean for about 3 weeks, from when it started as a storm in central Africa. We just had a squibbler of a storm (Gabrielle) hit the Outer Banks. So what's coming up next?
NOAA is tracking Invest 91L, a new one, in the Atlantic. This may become a tropical storm soon. Some models develop it into a Category 3 hurricane, but GFS so far has it dissipating before it gets close to land. The GFS runs keep showing over and over again, about two weeks from now, around 2007 September 26, a storm originating in the Caribbean, crossing the Yucatan strait into the Gulf of Mexico, and hitting the US coast. Earlier runs had it hitting New Orleans, but more recent runs show it flirting with Florida. So the season is not over yet.
So that's the Marine Summer Solstice. The next major point is September 23, the midpoint of Solar Autumn, when the nights start getting longer than the days.
So how is the Marine Summer Solstice marked? First of all, it is the time when Arctic sea ice is at a minimum. From this time on, we can expect ice in the north to increase. The Weather Solstice already has occurred (July 26 or thereabouts) and so there has been cooling on the continents, and already snow is falling in eastern Russia and the Canadian high arctic islands. So what happened to the ice on September 11? It shrunk! That's right, it melted substantially and now nearly half of the Arctic Ocean is free of ice. This has to have an effect on the coming winter. One would think the winter should be abnormally warm, especially in eastern Russia and western Alaska. Further, with more moisture in the air, one would think that these areas would have more snow than usual, and it seems that this snow is already starting. The worst effect of this warmth is if it starts the Greenland ice sheet to melting. But that area is near the part of the Arctic Ocean that has not melted.
September 10 is also the peak of the hurricane season. So far we have had a season midway between the two previous seasons. There have been two Category 5 hurricanes, Dean and Felix. I followed Dean for about 3 weeks, from when it started as a storm in central Africa. We just had a squibbler of a storm (Gabrielle) hit the Outer Banks. So what's coming up next?
NOAA is tracking Invest 91L, a new one, in the Atlantic. This may become a tropical storm soon. Some models develop it into a Category 3 hurricane, but GFS so far has it dissipating before it gets close to land. The GFS runs keep showing over and over again, about two weeks from now, around 2007 September 26, a storm originating in the Caribbean, crossing the Yucatan strait into the Gulf of Mexico, and hitting the US coast. Earlier runs had it hitting New Orleans, but more recent runs show it flirting with Florida. So the season is not over yet.
So that's the Marine Summer Solstice. The next major point is September 23, the midpoint of Solar Autumn, when the nights start getting longer than the days.
posted by Jim at 6:05 AM
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