Sunday, August 12, 2007

Invest 90L All Over the Place

Where is Invest 90L going to go? Is it going to turn northwards and become a fishspinner, going harmlessly out to sea? Maybe, because a strong cold front is due to exit the US at that time, tracking the storm to the north. Will it hit the Carolinas or Florida? Texas or Mexico? Or will it simply fizzle out and go poof? Answer: Any of the above. Or all of the above.

The GFS runs today say the following:

0Z - Mexico, near the Texas border.
6Z - Mexico, near the Texas border.
12Z - Mexico, near the Texas border.
18Z - Mexico, near the Texas border.

So it looks like Invest 90L is going to go to Mexico. But one person on Storm2k says "there is no way this thing is going to Mexico." He has support from some of the other models:

European (ECMWF): curve to the north and head towards central Florida.
Cold front coming off coast: Go fish.
NOGAPS - fizzle out and go poof.

At the beginning of the day I thought Invest 90L was going to go to Mexico. Now I am not sure. Right now it is still Invest 90L (which deprecates the fish theory), a few hundred miles west of the African coast. It has maximum winds of 30 mph. What will it do? The next few days may tell the story.

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