Arthur on June 2?

Winter is over now. I recorded 34 storms or lows which created forecasts containing wintry precipitation in them this past winter, but nothing produced more than a dusting or perhaps an inch of snow. The most dangerous was a brief sprinklet lasting about an hour of freezing rain, but it caused hundreds of accidents in the Richmond area on December 7.

So now summer is coming up, and what comes near the end of summer? Hurricanes, that's what. Already we have a tropical storm threat. None of the weather people say it yet, because it is more than a week away, but the Global Forecasting System has been forecasting it for quite a few days in a row. Apparently a disturbance near the end of May in the southern Caribbean is going to move north, clip Cuba's western part, and head to Miami about June 2. The storm, which may be a strong tropical storm or hurricane, then will go out to sea off the Atlantic seaboard.

If this materializes, it would be called Arthur. So far the GFS runs have been consistent in predicting this storm, and the European Model (ECMWF) is now showing it as well. So residents of Florida need to keep aware of the forecast. There may be a hurricane headed your way.

Don't be concerned by the earliness of this storm. The year 2007 started with a subtropical storm, named Andrea, that did not do much except pinwheel around and ruin weather on the Atlantic coast. But keep a watch of it.