The Bear
The hurricane threat still remains. Some of the Global Forecasting System runs have been strange. Most of them have something going on in the Pacific Ocean south of Nicaragua, crossing Central America and moving north, developing into a storm which heads towards Florida, and then to the Gulf of Mexico, up the Atlantic seaboard, or out to Atlantic sea, depending on the run. One weird run has it splitting in half in the Gulf of Mexico, with one half heading towards Houston, and the other to peninsular Florida, and then out into the Atlantic. The GFS now shows the storm forming on May 31 near Central America, hitting Florida on June 3 and Virginia in the wee hours of the morning of June 6.
None of the local weather people or public forecasts of NOAA say much about the storm, but the meteorologists are aware of it. Here is what the Area Forecast Discussion says about the storm at 2008 May 25 14:46 CDT today:
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROPICS BY DAY SEVEN. THE GFS HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST STATES. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM MEXICO ALL THE WAY EAST INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH BOTH MODELS THEN GOING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT IS BEST TO SAY THAT THE TROPICS BEAR WATCHING.
That's right. They say the tropics bear watching. So I am going to name this storm The Bear, until it gets an official name, if it will get one. If it gets a name, it would be called Arthur. That sounds cute: Arthur the Bear. The adventures of Arthur the Bear.
With this type of storm already persistently showing up in the GFS, it looks like a bad hurricane season may be ominating this year. We have warmer temperatures, cold air to the north, and warm sea temperatures, all of which mean an active season. The Bear probably will come about because of a cold front that dragged too far south for this time of the year. I hope it stays away from us. We have already had problems with bears recently, including Bear Stearns and a bear in the Richmond area that wandered around before being clobbered on I-95 by a tractor trailer. We have also had problems with power outages. My area used to be safe from such outages, getting them only in the worst hurricanes and ice storms. We have had an 8-hour and a 12-hour power outage this year from ordinary storms and their wind, scarcely gale force. So please stay away, Bear.
None of the local weather people or public forecasts of NOAA say much about the storm, but the meteorologists are aware of it. Here is what the Area Forecast Discussion says about the storm at 2008 May 25 14:46 CDT today:
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROPICS BY DAY SEVEN. THE GFS HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST STATES. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM MEXICO ALL THE WAY EAST INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH BOTH MODELS THEN GOING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT IS BEST TO SAY THAT THE TROPICS BEAR WATCHING.
That's right. They say the tropics bear watching. So I am going to name this storm The Bear, until it gets an official name, if it will get one. If it gets a name, it would be called Arthur. That sounds cute: Arthur the Bear. The adventures of Arthur the Bear.
With this type of storm already persistently showing up in the GFS, it looks like a bad hurricane season may be ominating this year. We have warmer temperatures, cold air to the north, and warm sea temperatures, all of which mean an active season. The Bear probably will come about because of a cold front that dragged too far south for this time of the year. I hope it stays away from us. We have already had problems with bears recently, including Bear Stearns and a bear in the Richmond area that wandered around before being clobbered on I-95 by a tractor trailer. We have also had problems with power outages. My area used to be safe from such outages, getting them only in the worst hurricanes and ice storms. We have had an 8-hour and a 12-hour power outage this year from ordinary storms and their wind, scarcely gale force. So please stay away, Bear.
posted by Jim at 4:34 PM
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