East Coast Hurricane in mid August?
It's Hurricane Time again. The date of maximum hurricane activity is September 10, and that date is fast approaching. This season has produced two Atlantic storms, Alberto and Beryl, but neither was as severe as last year's monsters. By this time last year, we already had Dennis and Emily, both Category 4 at the maximum. Two weeks ago, the meteorologists were saying that there was a great amount of wind shear over the southern North Atlantic, the Carribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico, making tropical storm formation unlikely. However, once again the waters are warmer than usual, and we have had a stream of Eastern Pacific hurricanes up to Emilia. So are there chances for an Atlantic storm any time soon?
Not within the next few days. The forecasters say there is nothing out there that is likely to form. How about the next two or three weeks? This is so far out that only one model, the Global Forecasting System, models out this far; it goes out to 16 days. For the past few days, this model has been showing a storm developing. Around the beginning of August, it shows the storm developing off the coast of Africa, and then moving relentlessly westward to strike the US Atlantic coast. Two runs have aimed for South Carolina, and one for mid Florida and panhandle Florida. Yesterday's (2006 July 26) 12Z run shows the storm about to strike South Carolina at 384 hours (16 days). This morning's 2006 July 27 00Z run shows it almost instantly going north and dissipating. But the 06Z run shows it back again, aiming towards Wilmington, NC, on August 12. August 13 is my birthday. I have already had one hurricane on my birthday - Connie in 1955.
Several runs in the past few days show this storm developing and aiming for the coast. So this suggests that something may happen in the middle week of August. Keep a watch on the weather forecasts and models - it could simply dissipate, or it could hit anywhere from Houston to Nova Scotia. As we get closer to mid-August, we will see what this is all about. If a hurricane does develop, and if no other tropical storm develops by that time, it would be called Chris.
Not within the next few days. The forecasters say there is nothing out there that is likely to form. How about the next two or three weeks? This is so far out that only one model, the Global Forecasting System, models out this far; it goes out to 16 days. For the past few days, this model has been showing a storm developing. Around the beginning of August, it shows the storm developing off the coast of Africa, and then moving relentlessly westward to strike the US Atlantic coast. Two runs have aimed for South Carolina, and one for mid Florida and panhandle Florida. Yesterday's (2006 July 26) 12Z run shows the storm about to strike South Carolina at 384 hours (16 days). This morning's 2006 July 27 00Z run shows it almost instantly going north and dissipating. But the 06Z run shows it back again, aiming towards Wilmington, NC, on August 12. August 13 is my birthday. I have already had one hurricane on my birthday - Connie in 1955.
Several runs in the past few days show this storm developing and aiming for the coast. So this suggests that something may happen in the middle week of August. Keep a watch on the weather forecasts and models - it could simply dissipate, or it could hit anywhere from Houston to Nova Scotia. As we get closer to mid-August, we will see what this is all about. If a hurricane does develop, and if no other tropical storm develops by that time, it would be called Chris.
posted by Jim at 9:00 AM
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