DC Storms

It is said that global warming leads to more hurricanes, but it doesn't take a hurricane to cause damage. The recent storms in Virginia, Maryland, DC, and Pennsylvania show that massive flooding from torrential rains can occur without a hurricane. All that is needed is a flow of moisture. Right now the Bermuda High is sitting out in the middle of the Atlantic, with its dome of influence extending to just off the coast, providing a channel where storms and hurricanes can move up the coast. Hot, humid conditions cause moisture to evaporate into the air, and when disturbances come through the channel, they pick up this moisture and explode into storms with heavy rainfall. One system off the coast of Florida did show some signs of a tropical depression, but its main effect now will be to pile moisture and rains into the Carolinas tomorrow (2006 June 27).

The storms will clear away later this week, but they seem to show that the Bermuda High is farther off the coast this year. This could steer hurricanes to the East Coast, and so I will watch this carefully. Regardless, the increased number of hurricanes and now storms like the DC storm seem to be the effect of global warming on us. It will get worse, with only one thing even worse yet stopping it - peak oil.

Alberto

It looks like the hurricane season has started again, at almost the same time as last year, with last year's storm being Arlene, and this year's Alberto. Will this year mimic last year? If so, New Orleans needs to beware Hurricane Kirk coming on August 29. It certainly is not a good start. Here they come.

It first started out as a depression in the Caribbean which the National Hurricane Center said would develop into a minimal, or Class 1, tropical storm. (See my earlier blog for these classes; I have changed their name from categories to classes because people are now using "category" to mean winds exceeding 74 miles per hour. ) I looked at the GFDL model and it said that the storm would go off the Atlantic coast and would become a Category 3 hurricane. I felt that the prediction of such a puny storm was seriously underrating it, and I was right. Instead of languishing at 40 mph, its winds have speeded to 70 mph, making it a Class 4 tropical storm.

So maybe some parts of Florida will get some gales. Their trees won't blow down; that is, if they are palms. The pines will blow down, of course, and cause many power outages. But this is not even a hurricane, let alone a Katrina. But what is the media doing? Especially CNN and Fox News? They are hyping it up and hurricaning it up on all the news channels. CNN is playing the hurricane music, and not much of anything else gets covered. They are treating Alberto as though it were Katrina or Rita. That leaves no room for emphasizing the severity of high category storms like my hypothetical Kirk above, and people will tend to downplay such a Kirk, and if such a Kirk were to to once again put New Orleans under water and cause massive destruction, this time around, because of the lack of appropriate publicity, more people will die. So please pipe down, media. This is not even a hurricane yet.

And fortunately the NHC outlook, after referring to Alberto, says, "Tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday." I hope it stays that way.

Hurricane Season

2006 June 1 has come and gone. It is now official NHC hurricane season. So what is coming up as far as hurricanes are concerned? Certainly I hope for something other than 2005. The 2005 season broke so many records that I refer you to this for them. I will just remark that in previous seasons, hurricanes will go to F or G in the alphabet or maybe K or L or something. 1995 was unusually active, and got as far as T; it did not quite make it to the end. Not only did 2005 run the NHC out of alphabetic names, it plowed into the Greek alphabet, and made its way seven letters into it, going all the way to Eta! (No, the NHC did not designate an Eta. They did say that a storm in October turned out to be a tropical storm, but they did not name it. I am naming it Eta). The season was the only one on record with a W storm, and that storm, Wilma, was the strongest hurricane on record. The 2005 season didn't just set a record. It obliterated the records like Katrina obliterated the Gulf Coast.

What caused the season? It was so much worse than any other season that global warming could not have accounted for that many storms. Neither could the theory of a cycle of hurricanes; that we are entering an era of more storms, similar to the 1950s. I believe the season resulted from a combination of both global warming and the natural cycle.

So what can we expect in 2006? They are saying it is going to be another active season, but it will "only" go to R or so. Indeed, I see that the seas are getting warm already. The water off the Mexican Pacific coast is already bath water, so tropical systems are already hatching. There have been two of them as of 2006 June 4. So it looks like an active season. I am getting a little concerned about it, too. Last year, the Bermuda High sat just off the coast, giving us hot, sticky, and rainless weather for weeks. This forced all the hurricanes into the Gulf, where they caused massive havoc. Only one storm hit the Atlantic seaboard - Category 1 Ophelia.

This year the high so far has been distant. This has allowed all kinds of rain storms to afflict us. Today, for example, it would be nice and clear, with a few puffy and somewhat overgrown cumulus clouds around. Then a dark cloud would dangle lightning and hit us, causing a torrent. I am getting afraid that this will result in storms hitting the Atlantic coast. The Low so far has been to the Northeast, north of us in Richmond. So a hurricane will either scoot to to the south of this low, which would cause it to cross Florida and hit the Gulf States, or it will move to the east of the low, meaning it will go fish out in the Atlantic or brush by the Outer Banks. And it is one of these that I am afraid could become another Floyd or Isabel. I did some experimenting with a model on the Internet and found that with the pattern of lows to our north and a far off southern Bermuda highs, that storms will either brush by the coast or head out to sea.

So I am afraid of storms hitting our region. Maybe it doesn't make a difference, for if they hit the Gulf instead, it will damage the US's oil drilling and refining capacity, and cause gasoline prices to skyrocket. I still say, if these hurricanes insist on coming our way, I will post a NO circle sign saying "No 'Canes".